” The noble title of "dissident" must be earned
rather than claimed; it connotes sacrifice and risk rather than mere
disagreement.”
Christopher Hitchens, Polemicist (Marketed by O Ashuji....)
Its time to run....when the most intense bears turn bulls (after several years of up move)
O Ashuji...
Markets advance over last few months (barring recent correction) have made most notable bears into bulls. (Hugh Hendry of Electica, Paul Farell of Marketwatch, Nouriel Roubini of RGE Monitor,etc). Joining them NOW is extreme bear Charles Nenner. Charles Nenner is Executive Director at Charles Nenner Research Centre. He is well known technical and market cycle analyst. He has been extremely bearish with only competition from Robert Prechter. Almost every year since 2010 he has called for market tops and finally in 2014 he sees market going higher by 10%. Such is the nature of price that it makes you do things that you otherwise wouldn't do. Below is time line of his calls since 2010 and last being on 1st Feb 2014.
2 Feb 2010 - Interview with Forbes (excerpts)
Technical Analyst to the Stars Charles Nenner Calls Market
Top
"At the Friday close, technical analyst to the hedge fund
stars, Charles Nenner, put out his long awaited sell signal on the S&P 500,
with the market’s definitive break of the crucial 1,125 support level. From
here you sell into the rallies."
"Farther out, Nenner sees a new major bear market beginning
in 2013 that will take both stocks and bonds to new lows."
(Link - http://www.forbes.com/sites/streettalk/2010/02/09/technical-analyst-to-the-stars-charles-nenner-calls-market-top/)
March 2011 Interview
Nenner still thinks deflationary pressures will lower the
Dow to 5,000 - along with a major war by end of 2012 into 2013.
(Link to the video - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vcTm4XE4EA)
March 2012 Interview with Forbes
An Interview With Technical Analyst Charles Nenner (Forbes)...Excerpts
Navin: You’re on record as setting 1449 on the S&P 500
Futures as a target price from which a significant sell-off may begin. You’ve
mentioned that the second quarter of 2012 year may be the time frame. Is that
correct?
Nenner: Yes, John. The cycle work points to April 19th as
the target date for a peak in stock prices.
Navin: What sectors do you expect to be the weakest after
your April cycle date high?
Nenner: I expect it’ll be like last year, 2011. The economy
seemed strong at the beginning of the year, and then became weak. Incidentally,
my economic indicator cycles predicted that as well. We should see the same
type of progression this year. The materials sector, in particular, seems weak.
The financials are okay, and will basically trade with the market. I would
expect that the technology stocks will neither outperform nor underperform.
Navin: The readership of Forbes is largely oriented toward
fundamental analysis. What would you say that could persuade them that the
study of price patterns is useful?
Nenner: Well, first, let me say that people think too much
in terms of price and not enough in time. Cycles are about time. What has
occurred in the past in a recurring pattern can be projected into the future.
That’s the nature of cycles – which comes from the Greek word for circle. In
2007, we saw a crash coming and mentioned it to our clients, and we published
economic indicators at the end of 2008, showing that a low would be reached in
March of 2009. This shows that cycles and technical analysis works. I disagree
with fundamentalists when they say things are not based on the past. I use a
joke to explain this. When the first Dodge vans rolled out of the plant, I was
standing with someone who commented to his friend, a Wall Street executive,
that he saw a new type of car coming. His friend said to him, “you are a
fundamental analyst”. I pulled out a yellow pad, and starting noticing that the
vans came out every hour in different colors, and starting charting them. The
friend said to me:”you are a technical analyst!”
By the way, I do not call it technical analysis, I call it
visualizing.
Navin: Anything else?
Nenner: Yes, this type of cycle analysis also works
extremely well for months-in-advance kinds of decisions, in addition to
analyses for the next 3 or 4 days, or weeks. My work is used by big
institutions, family offices, hedge funds, traders, and brokers all over the
world. We don’t manage money, nor are we brokers – so we can give what we can
consider to be honest, scientific, unbiased advice.(If money is on line....humility can come naturally not otherwise) So-called “fundamentals”
have nothing to do with it. In fact, we consider cycles to be quite fundamental
in the truest sense of the word, since they work across all data series –
stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and economic indicators.
(Link - http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnnavin/2012/03/25/an-interview-with-technical-analyst-charles-nenner/)
August 2013 Interview with Moneynews....
Charles Nenner to Moneynews: US Headed for Recession and
It's 'Going to Be Bad'
"We had a target of 1,720 on
the S&P, so once we were [at] about 1,700 we sold all the stocks," he
said. "The sentiment [is] too extreme. The market is very risky, so we
don't go in anymore. We've been out now for the last three, four months and
we're just standing aside."
(Link - http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/charles-nenner-recession-economy-united-states/2013/08/19/id/521167)
Feb 2014 Interview with Financial Sense Newshour (www.financialsense.com)
Technician Charles Nenner: This Is Not a Major Correction
"Charles sees some risk to the
markets into early February, but does not believe this is the start of a major
correction. He believes the stock market should do well in the first half of
2014. Charles also doesn’t see the stock market as overvalued at the moment,
but it would be if it rises another 10%."
(Link - http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/charles-nenner/this-not-major-correction)
