Nifty (India) - Quality of Pullback....Not Comforting!!
- It may be bit too early to judge quality of pullback but pullback from 4800 has been led by sectors which were battered the most i.e. Infra, Mid-Cap, ADAG stocks,etc. while the strongest sector like IT and Bank Nifty have been laggards.
- On yearly basis, IT Index and Bank Nifty has been one of the best performing major Indices. Yearly, IT and Bank Nifty is down 17% and 15% respectively, almost in line with Nifty's fall of 11%...however these Indices which combined account for 32% of Nifty have started to significantly fall on weekly and Monthly basis. This clearly shows that Quality has begun to be sold.
- Any durable bottom shouldn't be led by beaten down stocks like Infra, Realty...but by sector leaders (unless leadership shifts to Infra Realty !!! )....Given the way relatively stable (were strong in each of the previous fall) stocks like ICICI, AXIS, TCS, Telco, etc have fallen in this fall clearly shows that we might soon be approaching capitulation fall....
- Since Rally that began in 2009...worst months (double digit fall) have been Jan 2011 (-10%) and Aug 2011 (-11%)...Given the way quality stocks have started to behave it is likely that soon we will have capitulation months...
| Daily | Weekly | Monthly | Yearly | |||||||
| INDIA VIX | -7.2 | CNX PSU BANK | -7.8 | CNX REALTY | -23.5 | CNX REALTY | -52.7 | |||
| CNX IT | -0.5 | BANK NIFTY | -7.6 | CNX IT | -19.7 | NIFTY MIDCAP 50 | -26.5 | |||
| BANK NIFTY | 0.0 | CNX REALTY | -7.4 | CNX PSU BANK | -16.5 | CNX PSU BANK | -23.6 | |||
| CNX PSU BANK | 0.1 | CNX IT | -6.1 | BANK NIFTY | -14.9 | CNX INFRA | -21.2 | |||
| CNX SERVICE | 0.3 | CNX SERVICE | -5.6 | S&P CNX DEFTY | -14.1 | CNX PSE | -19.3 | |||
| CNX REALTY | 0.4 | NIFTY MIDCAP 50 | -5.2 | CNX SERVICE | -14.0 | CNX MIDCAP | -19.0 | |||
| CNX MNC | 0.5 | CNX MIDCAP | -4.5 | NIFTY MIDCAP 50 | -12.6 | CNX ENERGY | -17.9 | |||
| CNX NIFTY JUNIOR | 1.0 | S&P CNX DEFTY | -4.2 | S&P CNX NIFTY | -11.6 | CNX NIFTY JUNIOR | -17.4 | |||
| S&P CNX DEFTY | 1.0 | CNX NIFTY JUNIOR | -3.7 | CNX 100 | -11.4 | CNX IT | -16.8 | |||
| CNX 100 | 1.1 | S&P CNX 500 | -3.7 | S&P CNX 500 | -11.3 | BANK NIFTY | -14.8 | |||
| S&P CNX NIFTY | 1.1 | CNX 100 | -3.5 | CNX INFRA | -10.7 | S&P CNX 500 | -14.1 | |||
| S&P CNX 500 | 1.1 | S&P CNX NIFTY | -3.4 | CNX NIFTY JUNIOR | -10.6 | CNX SERVICE | -13.0 | |||
| CNX PHARMA | 1.2 | CNX INFRA | -2.6 | CNX MIDCAP | -10.1 | CNX 100 | -12.1 | |||
| CNX FMCG | 1.2 | CNX MNC | -2.4 | CNX ENERGY | -8.9 | S&P CNX NIFTY | -11.0 | |||
| CNX PSE | 1.5 | CNX PSE | -1.9 | CNX MNC | -8.0 | S&P CNX DEFTY | -8.8 | |||
| CNX MIDCAP | 1.5 | CNX PHARMA | -1.9 | CNX PSE | -7.1 | CNX MNC | -2.9 | |||
| CNX INFRA | 1.9 | CNX ENERGY | -0.8 | CNX PHARMA | -6.6 | INDIA VIX | 0.0 | |||
| NIFTY MIDCAP 50 | 1.9 | INDIA VIX | 0.2 | CNX FMCG | -3.4 | CNX PHARMA | 5.9 | |||
| CNX ENERGY | 2.3 | CNX FMCG | 1.0 | INDIA VIX | 44.4 | CNX FMCG | 15.6 |
(Nifty F&O Turnover 2lac+ cr....since bull mkt began in 2009)
| Date | F&O Turnover | Nifty | Return | FII | DII | FII+DII |
| 30-09-10 | 211605 | 6030 | 0.6 | 2497 | -1522 | 975 |
| 27-10-10 | 206568 | 6013 | -1.1 | -9 | -518 | -527 |
| 28-10-10 | 252505 | 5988 | -0.4 | -950 | -60 | -1011 |
| 18-11-10 | 216055 | 5999 | 0.2 | -453 | 118 | -334 |
| 23-11-10 | 249758 | 5935 | -1.3 | -1493 | 1503 | 10 |
| 24-11-10 | 215180 | 5866 | -1.2 | -473 | -95 | -568 |
| 25-11-10 | 251965 | 5800 | -1.1 | -1208 | 198 | -1010 |
| 14-01-11 | 210495 | 5655 | -1.7 | -749 | 290 | -458 |
| 25-01-11 | 206028 | 5687 | -1.0 | 273 | -170 | 103 |
| 27-01-11 | 211339 | 5604 | -1.5 | -1651 | -256 | -1907 |
| 24-02-11 | 277277 | 5263 | -3.2 | -2702 | 1030 | -1672 |
| 31-03-11 | 254501 | 5834 | 0.8 | 3325 | -1717 | 1608 |
| 26-04-11 | 219852 | 5868 | -0.1 | -554 | 162 | -392 |
| 28-04-11 | 223206 | 5785 | -0.8 | -833 | 533 | -300 |
| 26-05-11 | 212284 | 5412 | 1.2 | 124 | 234 | 358 |
| 28-07-11 | 233519 | 5488 | -1.1 | 65 | 409 | 474 |
| 05-08-11 | 203812 | 5211 | -2.3 | -1789 | 1372 | -416 |
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