Thursday 3 January 2013

Market Turning Points and Expert Views !!!


MARKET TURNING POINTS AND EXPERT VIEWS


Someone has rightly said Business channels should be purely for entertainment. Must say it has huge entertainment value. It is widely known that market moves against consensus but acting against consensus is most difficult. I have tried to compile various expert views on Indian markets (Nifty) at important turning points and same was then compared with how market fared in following month/s. 

For the purpose of entertainment oops study....we have taken period leading upto November 2010 peak and Feb 2012 peak. This comparison is then followed by brief of expert views on current markets. 

source of views from experts - www.moneycontrol.com


ANALYZING PERIOD LEADING TO NOVEMBER 2010 PEAK


1st June 2010 Nifty @ 4970 down 2.3% (May 2010 @ -3.6% and April 2010 @ 0.6%)

Expert views  during June 2010

  1. 4400 on Nifty good buying opportunity - Emkay (2 June 2010)
  2. Risk aversion back, mkts may fall 20-25% more: Newedge (2 June 2010)
  3. Nifty may slip to 4400-4600 levels: Sampriti Capital (3 June 2010)
  4. Mkt to remain rangebound, won't break 5400-5500: IL&FS (7 June 2010)
  5. See Nifty in 4200-4800 range over 2 qtrs: Anand Rathi (10 June 2010)
  6. Nifty unlikely to cross 5200: MF Global (11 June 2010)
  7. Nifty unlikely to break 5250-5300 convincingly: Dalton (17 June 2010)


Nifty Hits High of 5353 on 21st June 2010 up 5.2% for June 2010

Experts view during last week of June 2010 post Nifty hitting high of 5353...

  1. Nifty upside capped at 5400-5500 levels: Sampriti Capital (21 June 2010)...same guy was looking @ Nifty slipping to 4400-4600 on 3rd June 2010.
  2. See Nifty at 5,450-5,480 levels: CK Narayan (21 June 2010)
  3. See Nifty heading towards 5450 in coming months: KR Choksey (21 June 2010)...it's very gutsy to give call of 2% rise in Nifty over few months !!!
  4. See Nifty around 5400-5500 by July-end: Prabhudas Lilladher (24 June 2010)....Another Gutsy call !!!

Nifty ends @ 5313 up 4.4% and 1st June was the month's low.

July Nifty starts @ 5313...

Expert views during July 2010

  1. Nifty to test 5500-5600 levels in July series: Quantum Sec (2 July 2010)
  2. See Nifty in 5100-5400 range in July: Prabhudas Lilladher (5 July 2010)....not sure about anything then give 2-3% range....
  3. Won't rule out a 15% fall in mkts over 2 months: JM Fin (6 July 2010).....Market rules him out over next 2 months
  4. Expect mkts to head south from current levels: Anand Rathi (6 July 2010)....Same guy had given range of 4200-4800 over next 2 quarters on 10th Jun 2010....oops !!!
  5. See Nifty at 5500 by July-end: Prabhudas Lilladher (12 July 2010)....oops week back I had said range of 5100-5400 in July but now market is @ 5400 so I change my small scale ranges...!!
  6. Earnings downgrades may push Nifty to 5000: Sampriti Cap (29 July 2010).....Market has been against me...so I will screw earnings now...


July 2010 Nifty ends @ 5368 up 1%

August 2010, Nifty starts @ 5368

Expert Views during August 2010

  1. Stay clear of SBI and Axis Bank: P N Vijay (3 Aug 2010) (our special chief guest)...both stocks made all time high over next 2 months rising 24% and 13% respectively.
  2. Nifty headed towards 5550-5600 in next few weeks: Karvy (5 Aug 2010)...Nifty stood @ 5468...Gutsy to give rise of 2% over few weeks..!!
  3. Nifty may hit 5560 soon, then correct: KR Choksey Sec (10 Aug 2010)...Nifty was @ 5450
  4. Markets may remain ranged for rest of the yr: Blackstone (13 Aug 2010)....Nifty rises sharply in Sep and goes close to all time highs...Because markets were ranged for last few months, Lets extrapolate that for entire year...
  5. Mkts headed lower this yr on dull eco data: Centrum Broking (13 Aug 2010)
  6. Nifty may slip below 5K if 5350 is broken: Karvy (17 Aug 2010).....1 week back same guy had said Nifty heading to 5550-5600...


Nifty corrects by 2% over last week of August2010 and all experts now give their even more accurate views

  1. Nifty may correct to 5000 mark: Nilesh Shah (23 Aug 2010)
  2. How to get ready for a market correction (CNBC Debates on 25 Aug 2010)
  3. Markets likely to see a corrective fall: Deven Choksey (26 Aug 2010)
  4. Sensex ends below 18K: Experts see further correction (27 Aug 2010)....Experts are always right...market rises by 12% in September 2010 and experts parties....!!1
  5. Nifty likely to be volatile, may touch 5100: Dilip Bhat (27 Aug 2010)
  6. Mkts may correct 5-7% soon, MFs to stay in sidelines: Emkay (30 Aug 2010)


SEP 2010 Market rises by 12%



Expert Views Post Market rise of 12% in September 2010....during October 2010

KR Choksey Sec sees mkt hitting 6300-6400 soon (5 oct 2010)...Nifty was at 6150...so huge upside tgt of 2-3%..
Mkts may correct 8-10% in 2 months: Prabhudas Lilladher (5 oct 2010)
Sharyans Resources doesn't see rally fizzling out soon (6 oct 2010)
See a lot of unused cash coming to India: Edelweiss (8 oct 2010)
Nifty may test 6700-6800 by Dec-end: IL&FS (13 oct 2010)
Why Anand Tandon sees ghost of '07 haunting markets now? (14 oct 2010)
Fortune Fin says India best among EMs, bets on metal stocks (14 oct 2010)
Markets likely to correct 4-5%: Sampriti Capital (18 oct 2010)
Nifty to rise sharply after correcting to 5800: IL&FS (27 oct 2010)
See sharp slide if Nifty breaks 5800: Karvy Stock Broking (28 oct 2010)...Nifty@5988 and rise to 6300 over next 6 trading sessions and peaks @6300odd on 5th Nov 2010..

Expert Views during 1st half of Nov 2010 (Nifty peaks on 5th Nov @ 6312)

Mkt not riding on euphoria; will hit new highs: Dimensions (2 Nov 2010)
QE2 over $2.5-3 trn may trigger major mkt surge: Veda Invst (3 Nov 2010)
Nifty may eye 7000 by Jan, RIL to lead rally: Gautam Shah, JM Financial (3 Nov 2010)
Samir Arora bullish on markets with 65% net position (8 Nov 2010)
JM Fin sees Sensex above 23K by year-end, bets on banking (10 Nov 2010)

By 19th November 2010, Nifty is below 6000 and experts pick up near term bottom yet again....

Expert Views during last week of Nov 2010

  1. Banks can correct 5-10% from current levels: Edelweiss (22 Nov 2010)
  2. Atul Suri sees Nifty touching 7050 in 6 months (23 Nov 2010)
  3. Mkts may fall below 5900 by month-end: Motilal Oswal Sec (23 Nov 2010)....Nifty stood @ 5935
  4. Mkt may hit 5400-5500 in worst case: Dalton Cap (29 Nov 2010)
  5. Anand Tandon optimistic on near-term mkt pullback (29 Nov 2010)

Market rises by 4.6% in December 2012 ending year at 6135

ANALYZING PERIOD LEADING TO FEB 2012 PEAK


2011 was wild year with market having wild swings but year ending with fall of 25%. It had highest ever 8 negative months in a year. Even 2008 had 7 negative months. It was one of those rare year with negative December. H2CY11 was wild with August ending 9% down followed by flat September. October swung to 8% return, while November was disaster at -9%. entering December pessimism was extreme. let's review expert opinions during Dec 2011.

Expert Views during second half of December 2011...(Here we are Markets down close to 25% for the year...preceded by 10% fall in November 2011) 
  1. A buy on this market doesn't exist: Dimensions Consulting (14 Dec 2011)
  2. Rupee could go to even 58 against the dollar: Sanju Verma (15 Dec 2011)...our special guest
  3. Sharekhan sees 8-10% cut in market from current levels (15 Dec 2011)
  4. No reason to be bullish on Indian mkt in 2012: Dalton Cap (16 Dec 2011)
  5. Last leg of losses, mkt to see sunshine soon: Sanjay Dutt (19 Dec 2011)...RIGHT SIR
  6. Sensex seen in 14500-16500 range for one year: Emkay Global (19 Dec 2011)
  7. Nifty may slip to 4350-4400, pullbacks won't last: JM Fin (20 Dec 2011)
  8. Don't be bullish, mkt may face more pressure: Fortune Fin (20 Dec 2011)
  9. India story is weakening, stay in cash: Baliga (21 Dec 2011)
  10. 500-point rally upwards nearly impossible now: Manghnani (23 Dec 2011)
  11.  Market may test new lows over next one-year: Emkay Global (22 Dec 2011)
  12. Mkt trend looks down, Nifty may retest 4500: Rahul Mohindar (22 Dec 2011)
  13. Mkt may top at 4900, but is a bottomless pit now: MF Global (22 Dec 2011)
  14. Market may test new low in 2012: Sangeeta Purushottam (23 Dec 2011)
  15. See Nifty closer to 4400 in January: Ambareesh Baliga (27 Dec 2011)
  16. See new low before fresh high; support at 4300: Anu Jain (27 Dec 2011
  17. Nifty to hit new bottom in Jan, will stay bearish: HDFC Sec (29 Dec 2011)
  18. Current bear market to continue into H1 of 2012: Sukhani (30 Dec 2011)
  19. See a tough 2012, Nifty may hit 4000: Prabhudas Lilladher (30 Dec 2011)

JAN 2012 WAS THE BEST JAN SINCE 1994 WITH MARKET RISING 12.4%
At the end of Jan 2012, Nifty was @ 5200 (up 12.4% for the month). Nifty peaked on February 21, 2012 @ 5607. 5600 level was then breached six months down the line in September 2012. Lets go through expert views during Feb 2012.

Expert Views on week prior to Feb 2012 Top (Remember Market Topped @ 5607)
  1. Mkt in bull phase, Nifty can retest 6300 in a yr: IL&FS (14 Feb 2012)
  2. In Feb, Nifty has one-way ticket to 6000: Ambit Capital (15 Feb 2012)
  3. 6350 within reach on Nifty, but gains to be slow: Sukhani (16 Feb 2012)
  4. Don't rule out new high in equities this year: Atul Suri (16 Feb 2012)
  5. Rally to continue, market may see new high: Punita Sinha (21 Feb 2012)


Current Scenario


Nifty rose 8.5% in Sep 2012 closing @ 5700....lets review experts opinion during 1st half of October 2012

  1. Market looks strong; Nifty may see 5850: Aditya Birla Money (4 oct 2012)
  2. Nifty headed towards 6300; bet on ICICI Bk, Dabur: Darashaw (4 oct 2012)
  3. Nifty to see 6,000 plus levels by Diwali: Ambareesh Baliga (5 oct 2012)
  4. Nifty may see 6000-6100 in Nov series: Angel Broking (16 oct 2012)
  5. Dimensions Consulting sees Nifty at 6000 by December (8 oct 2012)

Market was flat in oct, while November it rose 5% (with all gains coming in last 2-3 days leading to expiry) flat in December. While, since June 2012 low market has risen close to 25%.

Current Views (since last week of December 2012)

  1. See Santa Claus rally in January this time: PN Vijay (21 Dec 2012)
  2. See mkt at 6100-6300 by Feb, if US fixes fiscal cliff:IL&FS (21 Dec 2012)
  3. Nirmal Bang bets on Jan-Feb 2013; says India may be best EM (24 Dec 2012)
  4. Sanju Verma sees Sensex at 22K by Mar 2013, suggests bets (24 Dec 2012)
  5. Nifty may touch previous high in 2013: Citrus Advisors (26 Dec 2012)
  6. Mkt to see good upside in January first half: Angel Broking (27 Dec 2012)
  7. See upmove in January; Nifty may test 6150: Anil Manghnani (28 Dec 2012)
  8. SP Tulsian sees Nifty near 6100 by mid-Jan (29 Dec 2012)
  9. Religare Cap sees 15% upmove; no change in macros just yet (31 Dec 2012)
  10. US, Europe sideshows; domestic boom to rule 2013: PN Vijay (1 Jan 2013)....US EUROPE SIDESHOWS...WOW
  11. See Nifty at 7500 if 6300 breached decisively: Darashaw (1 Jan 2013)
  12. Expect Nifty to scale 6100-6150 in January: SP Tulsain (2 Jan 2013)
  13. Manghnani sees Nifty major target at 6180 (2 Jan 2013)
  14. F&O: Nifty to test 6150 in Jan series, says ICICI Direct (2 Jan 2013)
  15. Budget 2013: Consensus positive on 2013; no reckless buying: Kela (2 Jan 2013)....ABSOLUTELY RIGHT ABOUT CONSENSUS


BIG BULLISH CONSENSUS.....Let see what JAN-FEB 2013 has in store....


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