One that is easily understood never pays....and One that is not understood by many doesn't always pay....
O Ashuji....
Every right calls on market are bragged and wrong calls are ignored... that's human nature and unfortunately I am human. Here I will brag about my recent calls and unfortunately I haven't been wrong recently (which increases probability of my going wrong). Being right and making money are 2 very different aspects and someone has very rightly said KNOWLEDGE DOESN'T EQUAL TO BEHAVIOR. Price action always warn and opinions and views are useless. Studying price behavior is difficult because as human beings we always want "instant reasoning" for everything.
Recent Blog Notes (Since 2013.....)
- Nifty Rally on Weak Foundation !!! (1 Jan 2013)
- Nifty Mid Cap Volumes Tell Different Story !!! (7 Jan 2013)
- Small-Mid Cap Froth adds to Nifty Worry !!! TIME TO BE VERY CAUTIOUS (9 Jan 2013)
- Big Move Coming in Nifty (28 Jan 2013)
- Nifty - Labored Move and Walking on Thin ICE....(29 Jan 2013)
- NIFTY WALKING ON THIN ICE AND ICE MELTS.....(4 Feb 2013)
- Searching for Contrarian Signals for Top....will make Top Elusive (11 Feb 2013...Note was for Dow and S&P)
- Chess Board With Lonely King (Nifty) (14 Feb 2013)
- Bull Market in Sentiment and Bear Market in Stock Prices (25 Feb 2013)
- Entering Volatility Globally......(28 Feb 2013)
- Gold....Great Contrarian Buy !!!! (10 March 2013)
- Nifty (Indian Market) has been dead since 2013....(16 March 2013)
Market Performance
Since Early Jan 2013, I have been warning about significant deterioration in price and volume action within market and various indices (Time Permitting Go Through Those Blogs). Now its easy to be bear citing all irrelevant events like Cyprus, DMK Withdrawal, Earnings, etc Price action was warning long time back and events typically happen to confirm them and then everyone becomes TIGER BEAR.
My Blogs are incomplete without taking shot at FUNDA"MENTAL" Experts....Again, I will show how these experts are nothing but price following herd and their viewS are GREAT source of contra bets. Most of them if not all are just good talkers and will give news summary of various newspapers.
EXPERT VIEWS IN EARLY-MID JAN (WHEN PRICE AND VOLUME ACTION WAS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION)
See Sensex at 23k in '13; bank, auto to lead: Edelweiss (4
Jan 2013, CNBC)....YES AUTO AND BANKS HAVE LED BUT.....
Nifty to see 6150 in Jan series; buy GAIL: Angel
Broking (8 Jan 2013, CNBC)
Market downside capped; Infosys Q3 to be flat: PN Vijay (10 Jan 2013, CNBC)....This guy being right
will be BLACK & WHITE SWAN EVENT COMBINED.....
'13 to be good for stocks; wary of infra: Raamdeo (11 Jan 2013, CNBC)....Call him now and
Market Fundamentals have changed argument will come....
RBI policy action, reforms key trigger for mkt: Dipan
Mehta (11 Jan 2013, CNBC)...Hope is
only food and strategy for most.....
Nifty over 6,350 on rate-cut; sell Infy on weakness: Baliga
(14 Jan 2013, CNBC)....Interest rate should be cut by 500bps and RBI should
adopt QE for this guy to be right....
Liquidity strong, Nifty heading towards 6150-6200:
Bhamre (15 Jan 2013, CNBC)...When
Technical Guy starts talking about liquidity....is same as Pakistan starts talking
about friendship with India....
Bet on PSU banks, mid-mkt realty ahead of Jan 29: PN
Vijay (15 Jan 2013, CNBC)....Bet
against this guy consistently then one will realize that money can grow on
trees.....
Momentum favouring bulls: Nifty may head to 6350:
Sukhani (15 Jan 2013, CNBC)...not
quoting this guy often because his views are different and extreme intra-day on
many days.....
Extended Version.....
Mkt thirsts for rate-cut, mfg boost; buy HUL: PN Vijay (22 Jan 2013, CNBC).....and i thirst for
your calls....
Midcaps still a buy opportunity for investors: Sandeep
Shenoy, Anand Rathi (25 Jan 2013,
CNBC).....This guy has stopped picking up calls now...
Liquidity will alone drive market further: Sanju Varma (29 Jan 2013, CNBC)....yes very liquid
view...
EXPERT VIEWS NOW.....(After Significant Price Damage)
Cyprus issue bigger concern for mkt than UPA-DMK row:
IIFL (19 March 2013, CNBC)...Read
Financial Times and Economic Times and then summarize them...
Political drama will slow economic reforms: Tulsian (19
March 2013, CNBC)
Downside for Nifty at 5500; hold short positions:
Sukhani (20 March 2013, CNBC)
Nifty may fall 10% more in 2-3 months: Envision (20 March 2013, CNBC)....Such Strong Vision
Normally Comes after sharp fall not before..
Mid-term polls a possibility, so is 5500 Nifty:
Edelweiss (20 March 2013, CNBC)
Short if Nifty slips to 5663: Angel Broking (20 March, 2013)...GOOD MORNING
Delay in reforms key reason for market carnage: Tulsian (20 March 2013, CNBC)....This guy has been
in coma since May 2009....he has come to sense since last week...
Mkt still in downtrend; avoid buying any pullback:
Sukhani (21 March 2013, CNBC)
Concluding Remarks
2 Things have happened which along with such bearish sentiment can limit downside (though price action is always king and is yet to turn) and potentially move up the market.....
1)VIX movement
a) Above 3 shades are market movement on day of budget, sharp rally and then giving back entire rally and testing budget low today (21 March 2013)
b) VIX showed very strange movement on the day of budget. Despite sharp intra day volatility and market closing down 1.8%, VIX was down 8.4% on the day. Not sure if this was sign of market bottoming or sharp rally that was to be followed but it showed that downside volatility was not then anticipated by option player (quite opposite to market sentiment then)
c) During the rise post budget (green shade), VIX fell from 14.9 and closed at all time low at 13.07 on 8th March (Day of Market Peak). It has gone up since then and rose on each day market fell (except today and yesterday). VIX recently peaked on day of bunching of news -DMK and 2G and since then have been flat to marginally down since last 2 days. This is in spite of market being down 1.5% in last 2 days and breaking budget day low.
2) Rupee has been extremely compressed and is failing to fall with market decline.
ONLY CAVEAT IS GLOBAL MARKETS ARE ON TRICKY WICKET...WITH MANY MARKETS SHOWING INTERNAL DIVERGENCE.
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