Sunday 21 July 2013

Bull Market In Asset Markets Thrives on Corruption.....

Corruption or lack of awareness of Corruption drives and accelerates the bull market in asset markets....
O Ashuji

Biggest of the scams in stock market occurs during roaring bull market. Bull markets, particularly later stages are driven by greed and velocity of money shoots up. Rules are relaxed and oversight is close to absent. Its only during bear market ugly things surface or may be bear market makes things uglier. Lack of awareness  of corruption tends to keep bull market alive. Lack of transparency in rules drives biggest of the bull market. Ignorance largely drives bull market. Lets look at few examples...

India's bear market (Nov 2010-till date)
Though Nifty/Sensex might be close to all time high, but broader market has been under tremendous stress since peaking in November 2010. Many stocks are going below 2008 lows. Many other markets have conquered 2007 highs. During late 2010, India had beginning of anti-corruption movement led by Anna Hazare. Though Anna Hazare has largely disappeared but mood and media has become very sensitive/active on corruption issue. Scams after scams erupted post 2010....Unravelling scams was the story of town...Business approvals from government came to standstill, what is now popularly known as POLICY PARALYSIS. Investments in the economy has collapsed. One almost get sense of peak of pessimism. But it all began with ANTI-CORRUPTION DRIVE....

US Bull Market (2009-till date)
Interest rates were reduced to zero...Accounting rules for banks were relaxed/twisted...QE raise to infinity....Banks bonuses higher than 2007.....Most Feeble recovery post recession yet markets at all time highs....

Commodities Boom (2001/03-2011/2013)
Commodities boom largely began with big banks being allowed in physical trading in commodities.
That 2003 ruling, which involved Citigroup and its Phibro commodities trading unit, ushered in a decade of bank-friendly rulings from the Fed that allowed an increasing number of large financial groups to enter and dominate commodities trading. Approved in part by then-Fed governor Ben Bernanke, who now serves as chairman, the ruling allowed bank holding companies for the first time to trade physical commodities. 
In the following years, bank revenues from trading commodities soared, fueled by increasing global demand led by emerging markets such as China and India that required more oil, metal and other raw materials. Ten leading global banks have generated nearly $50 billion off their commodities business over the last five years, according to Coalition, a financial data provider.
(Huffington Post, 19th July, 2013)
Stories after stories were invented to justify phenomenal rise in commodity price with most famous being BRIC story. But root cause was large source of capital from banks being allowed to freely flow into physical commodities. We can debate endlessly as to why banks were allowed to get into such trading. Its precisely during good times tough questions aren't asked and corruption thrives.
Commodity prices are struggling recently and with recent Fed's state to review decision to allow banks/bank holding companies into physical trading of commodities, it could seriously kill the market. If banks aren't allowed to trade into physical commodities and other rules regarding of owning of storage facilities are tightened, one can say good bye to bull run in commodities. Of Course, Brokerage house and Investment banks will have FUNDAMENTAL stories about the same.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/19/wall-street-commodities_n_3625750.html

There are many factors driving bull/bear market...but corruption tends to accelerate bull markets. 




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