O Ashuji....
Nifty has been in the range of 6.2% since 1st November 2013 (when it breached 6300 after gap of 3 years). Thus for last 2.5 months (52 trading days), Nifty has been very compressed. Nifty breached its all time high on 9th December 2013. Thus, its been long consolidation for last 2-3 months. Are market internals telling different story ??
Nifty (India) - Towards New High With Significantly Worse Internals.....
In blog titled - "Bank Nifty and Massive Dispersion in Nifty Raising Red Flags....." (dated 24th July, 2013,
Link - http://speculationanart.blogspot.in/2013/07/bank-nifty-and-massive-dispersion-in.html), I had elaborated on 2 aspect that usually flashes warning signs.
1) Dispersion within Nifty components
2) Diverging Performance between Nifty and Bank Nifty
What happened to market post that post is history.
Nifty once again is flashing warning as it approaches all time high yet again. We will compare market internals between 9th December, 2013 high and now.
9th December 2013 High Vs Now...
1) 18 stocks (36% of Nifty) outperformed Nifty, with gains largely coming from IT Stocks. While other gainers were largely Pharma.
2) Massive Damage in Bank Nifty and other Momentum Stocks namely JPA, Larsen, IDFC, Metals, etc as can be seen from the losers. 14 stocks (or 28% of Nifty) had double digit losses since 9th December high.
3) Bank Nifty is down 8% since 9th December high while Nifty is largely flat (down 0.7%). Such divergence in performance is usually not healthy.
4) Break out towards or after new highs are usually not so weak internally.
The blog article very surprised to me! Your writing is good. In this I learned a lot! Thank you!
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