Weak bounce and sentiments calling for durable bottom.....in Nifty (India) !!

Weak bounce and sentiments calling for durable bottom.....!!

Nifty Fall..when crucial 5200/5177 was decisively broken on big volumes...

Date	F&O Turnover	Nifty	Return	FII	DII	FII+DII
05-08-11	203812	5211	-2.3	-1789	1372	-416
08-08-11	168902	5119	-1.8	-1386	1320	-65
09-08-11	197832	5073	-0.9	-2105	1413	-692
10-08-11	127444	5161	1.7	153	290	443
11-08-11	107842	5138	-0.4	-60	266	206
12-08-11	123774	5073	-1.3	-471	99	-372
16-08-11	114712	5036	-0.7	-261	252	-9
17-08-11	139602	5057	0.4	-408	169	-238
18-08-11	151030	4944	-2.2	-489	330	-158
19-08-11	190680	4846	-2.0	-903	423	-479
22-08-11	163236	4899	1.1	-786	143	-643
23-08-11	170266	4949	1.0	-100	303	203
24-08-11	179529	4889	-1.2	-883	561	-322
25-08-11	225779	4840	-1.0	-1441	385	-1056
26-08-11	101376	4748	-1.9	-226	393	167

Recovery Post “durable” 4700 bottom...on weak volumes..

Date	F&O Turnover	Nifty	Return	FII	DII	FII+DII
29-08-11	90131	4920	3.6	366	-326	41
30-08-11	108802	5001	1.7	621	102	723
02-09-11	83197	5040	0.8	1158	-346	812
05-09-11	82058	5017	-0.5	133	147	280
06-09-11	109933	5064	0.9	431	-415	16
07-09-11	95863	5125	1.2	262	-81	182
08-09-11	90346	5153	0.6	14	-267	-252
09-09-11	111991	5059	-1.8	-428	85	-343

Comparison  

	Fall (From 5200-4750)	Recovery (4750-5150)
Cumulative FII Selling	Rs -ve 11154 cr	Rs +ve 2559 cr
Average F&O Turnover	Rs 1.57 lac cr	Rs 96k cr
Rupee Movement	-2.70%	-0.70%
Trading Days	15	7

The above comparision between Fall and Recovery highlights following points...

Fall involved longer duration and much larger FII selling (Rs 11kcr) and average F&O turnover, while recovery has been faster on low volumes and much smaller FII buying (Rs 2.5k cr)

Rupee has continued to fall both during fall and recovery

Recovery looks like lack of selling than genuine buying....

With such set of Data, calling 4750 as durable bottom (as has been the consensus) looks more risky (unless crucial 5200 is taken on big volumes)...