Vastly Different Mood For Nifty @ 6000+ in Jan 2013 and Now !!!

When Financial "Comedians" on TV don't believe in something, then one must blindly believe....
O Ashuji....

I must say, I have been surprised by the strength of rally across global markets. Indian market strength has been surprising after Feb 2013 carnage. However, rally has been driven purely by large caps and broader market (Mid/Small Cap) continues to under perform large caps. Before we get into the mood of "Financial Comedians" on POGO (CNBC), I would like to compare how broad market performs during early stage of bull market.

Broad Market Performance During Early Stage of Bull Market....

2003 Bull Market 

1) Broader Market out performed benchmark in 7 out 12 months and under performance in remaining months was marginal. 

2) At the end of 2003, Nifty was up 59%, while broader market was up 95%.

1) Classic out performance of broader market. 

Markets bottomed in June 2012 at 4800 and since has rallied 25%. In the same time-frame, NSE Mid Cap is up 9% and small cap is up 5%. This is huge under-performance in broader market and hardly bullish. 

Idea to put above data point is to show massive under performance of broader market both during June-Dec 2012 and in 2013. Bull market typically dont begin with such massive under performance of broader market. BUT IT CAN ALWAYS BE ..."THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT"

Now, coming to the main theme...How Mood among "Financial Comedians" is vastly different now compared to January 2013..

Mood among Comedians now...

Clients should be cautious in this rally: Motilal Oswal Sec  (16th May, 2013)

Nifty heading 6200, don't short now: Aditya Birla Money   (16th May, 2013)

Nifty will take long to decisively break 6100: Edelweiss (15th May, 2013)

Nifty rally valuation-driven; profit booking seen: Religare   (15th May, 2013)

Market trend choppy; sell Nifty on rallies: Sukhani   (14th May, 2013)

See flat Nifty; be stock specific now: Angel Broking (7th May, 2013)

Nifty to hit 6100 soon; bet on pharma; shun IT: Dimensions   (8th May, 2013)

Rally almost over, stay clear of PSU banks: Dalton's Bhat   (10th May, 2013)

Midcaps set for huge rally in May: Dron Capital   (8th May, 2013)

Mood can broadly be summed up as cautiously optimistic...

Mood among Comedians during Jan 2013...

Nifty may touch 6700 by year end: Prabhudas Lilladher (9th Jan, 2013)

Sensex to see 21,700 in 2013; bullish on ONGC, ITC: HSBC   (10th Jan, 2013)

Market downside capped; Infosys Q3 to be flat: PN Vijay   (10th Jan, 2013)

Don't see signs of weakness in Nifty yet: Anil Manghnani   (11th Jan, 2013)

'13 to be good for stocks; wary of infra: Raamdeo   (11th Jan, 2013)

Nifty over 6,350 on rate-cut; sell Infy on weakness: Baliga (14th Jan, 2013)

Momentum favouring bulls: Nifty may head to 6350: Sukhani   (15th Jan, 2013)

Liquidity strong, Nifty heading towards 6150-6200: Bhamre  (15th Jan, 2013)

Nifty may touch 6150; bet on large caps, pharma: Edelweiss   (16th Jan, 2013)

ICICI Sec eyes 6550 on Nifty by Dec; bullish on IT, cement   (16th Jan, 2013)

Market may touch 25,300 by end-December: Karvy Private  (18th Jan, 2013)

Mood was broadly very optimistic since most comedians had VISION 2020 in Jan 2013.Market obliged mood among comedians then by correcting 5.7% in following month (Feb 2013)

Thus, at similar Nifty levels and close to all time highs...Mood is vastly different now compared to Jan 2013. Current Mood is relatively subdued. Same can't be said about global markets which close to euphoric.