O Ashuji....
India may be one of the few markets in the world, where large part of the time by Experts and Fund Managers is spent on "relevant" things like what is Finance Minister thinking, What will Ben Bernanke talk, Lets Hope Government does reform (its been favorite topic since 1991), Lets Hope RBI cuts interest rates, Who Will Form the Government....If we one listens to these Experts/Fund Mangers, one will have to concentrate hard to remember that these guys belong to Investment Management Industry. If a novice misses introduction part to these Experts/Fund Managers, then he will fail to differentiate between Anna Hazare's Hope and these experts/Fund Managers Hope. Opinions are given more importance than DATA.
Let DATA talk....
Index Futures and Options Volumes picked up hugely post 2009. Daily Average Turnover in Futures & Options markets have grown 2-3x since 2009. Hence, data for analysis is considered since 2010.
FII Index Futures selling (First 11 Trading Days of Month) (Rs cr)
Highest FII Index Futures Selling Since 2010
Conclusion
Except May 2011, which had small 1.5% move, other 2 months November 2010 and November 2012, had bigger moves over remaining days to expiry.
June 2013, so far has massive Rs 79bn of FII selling on Index futures. This month, FIIs have sold on Index Futures on 10 out of 11 trading days.
From Contrarian point of view such heavy selling on Index Futures could be positive. But if its indicative of coming Cash selling then downside could be serious. Expect Bigger Moves.....EXPERTS WILL HAVE REASONING FOR BOTH MOVES THOUGH...
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