Monday 14 October 2013

"Financial Experts" Mood with Nifty at 6000+....Then and NOW...

Financial Experts on Business Channels have VISIONARY HINDSIGHT on Markets......
O Ashuji....

I have great respect for "Financial Experts" on Business Channels not because of their ability to be consistently wrong but because it saves me lot of money. 
Just a recap on Blog Titled "Fundamental Analysis - Heads I win, Tails Fundamentals have changed....."
I had discussed one of the financial expert who has consistent track record on market but unfortunately my child beats him because my child is right 50% of time and this expert is 99.99% wrong. 

Just summary of last three call by the expert....
1) Nifty may slip to 4800; bet on fixed income: Ridham Desai (26 August, 2013) (CNBC)
2) Nifty may see 5300; buy IT, sell banks: Ridham Desai (23 September, 2013) (CNBC)
3)Valuation, weak growth to take mkt lower: Ridham Desai (1 October, 2013) (CNBC)

Summary of how markets have behaved after these calls...
1) Nifty made bottom on 28th August, 2013 (2 days after 1st call above).
2) Nifty is up 11.8% since 26th August, 2013 (33 trading days). 
3) Nifty is up 5.8% since last call on 1st Oct, 2013.

This is the consistency which everyone tries but fails. It can come only with understanding of everything under the sun. 

"Financial Experts" Mood with Nifty at 6100+....Then and NOW...

The idea of today's blog is to compare the mood of comedians on POGO channel in this year when Nifty touched 6000+ levels thrice....

1) Jan 2013 
Nifty crossed on 3 Jan, 2013 after gap of close to 2 years. Lets have a look at expert mood. 

Expect Nifty to scale 6100-6150 in January: SP Tulsain  (2 Jan, 2013)
Nifty to make new highs after taking out 6000: Ambreesh Baliga (3 Jan, 2013)
Buy banks, metals; Nifty hurdle 6150: JM Financial's Shah   (4 Jan, 2013)
Nifty may touch 6700 by year end: Prabhudas Lilladher  (9 Jan, 2013)
Nifty over 6,350 on rate-cut; sell Infy on weakness: Baliga (14 Jan, 2013)

Liquidity strong, Nifty heading towards 6150-6200: Bhamre (15 Jan, 2013) 

Nifty was above 6000 for 17 trading days in Jan 2013 and never crossed 6100 till May 2013. 

2) May 2013
After Jan 2013, Nifty again crossed 6000 on 7th May 2013. Lets have a look at expert mood.

Mkt rally to spill into small-, midcap space: Angel Broking   (8 May, 2013)
Liquidity can drive market higher; bullish on Ceat: Baliga (9 May, 2013)
See strong upside momentum in Nifty: Sukhani   (9 May, 2013)
Go long on Nifty; media pack looks tempting: Edelweiss Sec (11 May, 2013)
See volatile mkt; fresh high likely: Edelweiss Securities (15 May, 2013)
Nifty heading 6200, don't short now: Aditya Birla Money (16 May, 2013)
Don't panic, mkt won't correct significantly: Angel Broking (21 May, 2013)
Mkt won't see deep downside; buy cement: Pashupati Advani (21 May, 2013)
Nifty to test 6300 in few weeks; buy BHEL, L&T: Baliga  (23 May, 2013)
Mkt to scale fresh high; buy metals, pvt banks: InvestWorks (27 May, 2013)

Equities only option; buy Tata Motors, Godrej Prop: Damani (31 May, 2013) 

What happened over next 2-3 months is history but same experts will have visionary hindsight about the same. 

3) September - October 2013....NOW
Nifty hit 6000+ again on 19th September post sharp correction in July-August 2013....Lets have look at experts mood since mid September till now...

Mkt won't rally, but consolidate; focus on RBI: Edelweiss (19 Sep, 2013)
Use next mkt rally to book profits in banks: Ambreesh Baliga (20 Sep, 2013)
Don't get tempted by mkt rally; macros still weak: Advent  (21 Sep, 2013)
Underweight on India; USD rally key for EMs: CIMB (23 Sep, 2013)
Nifty lower side target at 4500; USD to soar: CIMB  (24 Sep, 2013)
Mkt capped at 6200 for 3-6 mths on lack of triggers:  Vikas Khemani (25 Sep, 2013)
Mkt to be bearish in Oct; Nifty may fall beyond 5500: Angel (27 Sep, 2013)
Mkt's climb to get tough, FY14 Sensex EPS to fall: Religare  (27 Sep, 2013)
Nifty may retest 5200-5400; hold pharma, IT: Sandeep Shah (30 Sep, 2013)
Valuation, weak growth to take mkt lower: Ridham Desai (1 Oct, 2013)
Nifty to hover in 5500-5850 in Oct; hold IT: Ambreesh Baliga (3 Oct, 2013)
Negatively biased on mkt; 5900 key for Nifty: Anu Jain   (7 Oct, 2013)

Mood is vastly skeptic to bearish this time around.....and Market NEVER Obliges these experts....






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