Going against crowd is the most difficult thing to do...yet in hindsight it turns out to be the smartest thing...
O Ashuji...
US market is through with all perceived risks (perceived risk hardly matters they are good for media debates) and actual risks keep on mounting. Please refer previous blog on "Risks - Perceived and Actual" http://speculationanart.blogspot.in/2013/10/risks-perceived-and-actual.html.
Everything Points to Nasty 3-6 month Outlook....
When markets are distorted as they are now, markets need not go to euphoric top. Crashes are more likely in distorted markets then secular downtrend.
Hope of liquidity is the only thing that drives the market and one can get that sense to how market reacts to "bad" economic numbers.
Most market participants are aware that markets are not being driven by fundamentals but yet participate in it because they know downside will be protected by Fed.
Markets have all green signals in terms of all clear perceived risks. Its precisely during these times nasty surprises are more likely.
Sentiments as measured by Daily Sentiment Indicators or AAII says "ALL IN" behavior. (DSI - 83% Bulls, AAII - 47% Bull, 17% Bear)
All Actual risks will sound common sense in hindsight, but they can only warn in the present.
TIME TO AGGRESSIVELY BUY PUTS....
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