Asset Bubbles are formed when "This Time is Different"....
O Ashuji...
Asset Bubbles have been widely discussed topic. Many have devoted large amount of research to the same. I will not get into definition aspect of the same. One of the most important requirement of bubble is lack of discussion on bubbles. Bubbles are born and flourishes when "This Time is Different".
Bubble Talks....All Around..
S&P 500 rally has been one of the most hated one because it has take most by surprise and continues to do so. Rally has been relentless on top deteriorating economic data. Most traditional "valuation" tools used by experts are flashing red flags (Unless belief is such high profitability and margins are sustainable). But Price action is supreme than opinions. Opinions are cheap and meaningless if they don't catch up with price action. S&P's price action continues to be strong among growing bubble talks which indicates - we could be in early part of big bubble formation. Market Frothiness can correct with time and price but when bubble is so widely discussed sustainable fall in asset prices is unlikely. I have never come across bubble discussion so much with market touching new highs. Most Discussions are centered around how Fed is fueling asset bubbles.
Recent Bubble Talks...(I will not quote any blogs which reflects more of personal opinions)
Bubble fears as US stocks break records (20 November, 2013)
- Financial Times
Why Stocks Are Undoubtedly Experiencing A Massive Bubble (8
October, 2013) - Forbes
Are We Headed for a Tech Stock Bubble? (18 November, 2013) -
USA NEWS
As market bubbles form, investors may want to take cover (18
November, 2013) - Reuters
Bubble Trouble? (16 November, 2013) - Barrons
I could go on and on with further links. Idea is to understand mood of market participants. Even during Janet Yellen (New Fed Chairwoman) First Senate Testimony, many senators asked her about stock market bubble.
When price moves are stronger than ability to comprehend then those moves have a long way to go. Its only when sky is clear, trouble begins. This "Bubble" will burst only when confidence in Fed is lost (which will get reflected in bond and currency markets).
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