O Ashuji....
With so much of information floating all around, ability of understand has come down, while perception of intelligence has gone up. The most important breed in equity markets namely equity strategists have amazing ability to understand "cause effect" relationship. To justify their existence they might even come with explanation between central bankers farts and stock market returns. In past I have written about merits of Fundamental Analysis.
Most of the equity strategists analyze market data far too much in terms of variables affecting stock market returns. One can scan through various local and global reports and it will be surprising to see how many variables are being discussed. Greater the number of variables affecting stock market returns poor will be its efficacy. Whenever a strategist talks about large number of variables affecting stock market returns or prices, its an implied acceptance that he has no idea about markets. Best part is with all wonderful analysis target price over one year will be 10-15% (such moves are common to occur over weeks to months). In past, I have discussed about Ridham Desai (Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley) and his ability to be consistently wrong on markets because of his sheer knowledge on market variables. Such knowledge serves as rear-view mirror type analysis. In India, few guys (I have discussed in my blogs) are extremely knowledgeable and serves as great contrarian indicators. After a long time Ridham Desai appeared today on CNBC....
Expect Sensex to fall 10% in next 1 yr: Ridham Desai
Market typically respect such calls in a contrarian way. Market respects humility more than knowledge.
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