Bull Market in Sentiment and Bear Market in Stock Prices

IF IT LOOKS LIKE A BULL....FEELS LIKE A BULL AND SMELLS LIKE A BULL...THEN IT MUST BE BULL SHIT....
O Ashuji....

World equity markets formed a major low on 4th June 2012. Since then most markets have risen remarkably and in very linear and least volatile manner. India's Nifty joined global rally and performed almost in-line with global markets till 2012 end. Government's flurry of reforms announcement and intention improved sentiment far ahead of stock price performance. H2 2012 was welcomed as a start of bull market.

2013 - Market Deforms Amid Government Reforms

Before we get into internals of markets in 2013....I will get into my favorite segment "EXPERT OPINIONS".

Expert Opinions during H2 Dec 2012 and H1 Jan 2013.....

Budget, Guj polls can take Nifty to 6800: Baliga (17th Dec 2012 CNBC)

-- why 6800....why not 7800....bolne ka paisa nahin lagta....

Jan rate cut hopes will drive equity mkt: Axis Direct  (18th Dec 2012, CNBC)

hope has been driving markets and hope will continue to drive...

Risk is in the air; fiscal cliff drag minimal: PN Vijay   (18th Dec 2012, CNBC)

Soon Risk will be in A***

Nifty may see new highs in January: Ambareesh Baliga  (20th Dec 2012, CNBC)

Market may see strong run up to Budget: BofA Merrill Lynch   (20th Dec 2012, CNBC)

Yes....very strong run so far ...with mid cap rising -ve 11% and small rising -ve 9%...

See Santa Claus rally in January this time: PN Vijay  (21st Dec 2012, CNBC)

Santa Claus came in February with mid cap and small cap falling by 9% and 7% respectively....

Sanju Verma sees Sensex at 22K by Mar 2013, suggests bets (24th Dec 2012, CNBC)

Come March 2013....date will change to March 2014 and so on and so forth....target and time is based on convenience.

Nirmal Bang bets on Jan-Feb 2013; says India may be best EM  (24th Dec 2012, CNBC)

Yes...Best EM...even Pakistan beat us....

US, Europe sideshows; domestic boom to rule 2013: PN Vijay  (1st Jan 2013, CNBC)

Domestic stocks boomed with massive rise in small and mid cap stocks....

See more upside in mkt; buy on dips: Siddharth Bhamre   (1st Jan 2013, CNBC)

Again same statement can be applied to anytime in the year...

Budget 2013: Equities to outperform; buy gold ETFs, says Axis Direct  (9th Jan 2013, CNBC)

Gold rose from 1684 (since 9th Jan 2013) to 1591 (now)...thus giving massive -ve 6.5%....

RBI policy action, reforms key trigger for mkt: Dipan Mehta   (11th Jan 2013, CNBC)

Farting by important market participants should also be trigger for market...

Liquidity strong, Nifty heading towards 6150-6200: Bhamre   (15th Jan 2013, CNBC)

Liquidity is second name of ignorance......

Market Internals in 2013....Screaming bull market gains momentum...

With Bullish sentiment...markets "bull-shit" picture gained further momentum in 2013...

Nifty Constituents Performance Since June 2012 lows (% Returns)  

Note: Arranged in order of best peformance during June-Dec 2012, Jan 2013, Feb 2013 and 2013)

If this looks like bull market then bull should wear look of bear....

Salient features of "New Bull Market" since June 2012 lows....Sarcasm is the theme

1) No of stocks outperforming Nifty roared from 22 to 15 as bull market gained momentum with announcement of various reform measures.

2) Stocks with positive returns  continued to make new high as bull market continued into 2013. June-Dec 2012 rally had 44 (out of 50) with positive returns while 2013 had 13 stocks with positive returns.

3) As with start of all major bull market, Mid-Cap and Small Cap outperformed massively to Nifty. Nifty rose 19% since June 2012 lows, while Mid-Cap and Small Cap rose 7% and 6% respectively.

4) All of the above happened with very strong global market and extremely active government.


Conclusions

Nifty continues to be on extremely weak wicket and given weak global set up and high budget hopes....Nifty could finally do...what small-mid caps have done.....