Monday 11 February 2013

Searching for Contrarian Signals for Top....will make Top Elusive



Global markets have been very resilient, particularly US markets. Most of the global markets have risen significantly since June 4, 2012, lows. After brief correction post announcement of QE Infinity, US markets have shown relentless rise, making it over bought on many parameters. (http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/carl-swenlin/very-overbought-market)

After such rise one would expect typical "this time is different" stories to emerge or for lack of explanation there is "huge liquidity" driving markets higher type of explanation. Though occasionally we hear liquidity explanation from "experts" with data saying otherwise (http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/ecbs_shrinking_balance_sheet/) , only new story to have emerged to provide explanation for relentless rise in market is "Rotation Story - from bonds to equities". 

I have no understanding of how one arrive at such conclusion nor will I try to do so. But more than this time is different stories....most experts or otherwise have tried to find various contrarian signals which might suggest topping of the market. BEST PART OF CONTRARIAN SIGNAL IS LESS THEY ARE DISCUSSED MORE EFFECTIVE THEY BECOME. Unfortunately, since dow has attempted to breach 14k and S&P breached 1500....many stories have emerged discussing how many signals/indicators are flashing contrarian sells. MAJOR TOPS ARE ONLY MADE WHEN "THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT" STORIES OUTWEIGHS "SEARCHING FOR CONTRA SELL SIGNAL" STORIES.

Below, I will provide link to various articles from blogs and sites which have provided charts/indicators as contra sells.


  1. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/insiders-now-aggressively-bearish-2013-02-06 (Marketwatch 6th Feb 2013)
  2. http://www.businessinsider.com/bofa-were-in-the-1-percent-of-investor-bullishness-2013-2 (Business Insider 11th Feb 2013)
  3. http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/comments/2013/sentiment_report_20130206.php (6 Feb 2013)
  4. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-06/euphoria (6th Feb 2013)
  5. http://cdroke.blogspot.in/2013/01/investor-sentiment-becoming-bubbly.html (30th Jan 2013)


Many other sites have been flashing various contra sells discussing high insider selling, low VIX, AAII and other surveys, etc.

The only thing I can conclude is correction is more likely outcome than forming major top just yet.

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