India Budget and Nifty Moves....Historical Perspective

ZOMBIE MARKET IS BETTER THAN DEAD BECAUSE ZOMBIES ARE VIOLENT.....
O Ashuji....

Nifty has been dead since November 2012 end would understatement. 

Nifty Movement Since November 2012 End....

1) Above table quite clearly highlights what nightmare it has been for a Nifty trader (it includes me). Zombies are better because they tend to be violent.

2) During 55 trading days since November end, Nifty has moved in 3.3% range (on closing basis) and is up 1%. Even a developed market will envy such stability. Nifty's close on 30th November was 5880 and today's close was 5940.

3) Having seen such market, it is no surprise that most "experts" are now calling for range bound market (limited downside and no major upside but bias is still positive). Such sentiments are prevailing at a time when we are about to enter Budget Day. Though most will say that budget exercise doesn't change over macro in major way, sharpest moves of markets tend to happen prior and post budget.

To understand market moves during budget time, we have taken 5 trading days prior and 5 trading days post budget.

Nifty Moves During Budget Time....

1) Average Move During 5 days prior to budget has been 2.9%, on budget day 2.4% and 5 days post budget 4.7%.

Conclusion

Anyone talking about range bound market now is purely extrapolating recent market moves without any eye on historical market moves. Though one must say that market of late has anything but historical in terms of extreme compression.